NOAA has released the 8PM Atlantic Tropical Forecast Discussion, and it looks like Ophelia is a hurricane for now and headed for the Southeast coast - probably South Carolina:
JUST WHEN IT LOOKED AS THOUGH OPHELIA MIGHT BE TRYING TO WRAP UP A MORE ORGANIZED STRUCTURE...DRY AIR FROM THE WEST BECAME ENTRAINED INTO THE CIRCULATION AND DECREASED THE COVERAGE OF DEEP CONVECTION. NUMEROUS ODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS LOCATED IN A TIGHT CLUSTER WITHIN 75 NM OF THE CENTER...AND THEN ANOTHER CLUSTER OF SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 30N-33N BETWEEN 72W-77W. OPHELIA HAS AN IMPRESSIVE 45-60 KT OUTFLOW JET RACING OUT THE NE SIDE OF THE STORM BUT IT HAS BEEN LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE AROUND THE OTHER QUADRANTS. THE STORM HAS BEGUN TO
LIFT TO THE NE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH BRUSHING BY TO ITS N OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST...BUT HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD IN OVER NEW ENGLAND IN THE NEXT 24-48 HRS WHICH COULD DRIVE OPHELIA BACK TO THE W TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COASTLINE
I find it disgusting that NOAA will not make a definitive forecast of the movement of Ophelia.
Just the kind of hedging that we expect from (any) federal level bureauocracy.
Posted by: Paul O. Grisham | Friday, September 09, 2005 at 09:09 PM