stormdigest

Forecasters: Gustav could strengthen to Category 3 hurricane -- OrlandoSentinel.com

 

Here comes Gustav, now a tropical storm, was already a hurricane. Forcasters predict Gustav will be a Category 3 hurricane by Saturday at 8am, just south of Cuba's western end. Then it may head in to the warm waters of Gulf of Mexico, and could strengthen significantly.

Forecasters warned that Gustav had the potential to grow into a perilous Category 3 hurricane and approach the Gulf Coast by Monday morning -- though cautioned that a storm's track and intensity are extremely difficult to predict several days in advance.

"We know it's going to head into the Gulf. After that, we're not sure we're it's heading," said Rebecca Waddington, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Center. "For that reason, everyone in Gulf needs to be monitoring the storm."

City officials were taking no chances, and drawing blueprints of how to evacuate the city if necessary. New Orleans plans to institute a mandatory evacuation order should a Category 3 or stronger hurricane be within 72 hours of the city.

Link: Forecasters: Gustav could strengthen to Category 3 hurricane -- OrlandoSentinel.com.

Hurricane DOLLY Forecast Discussion

Link: Hurricane DOLLY Forecast Discussion.

DOLLY IS STRENGTHENING. THE MINIMUM PRESSURE HAS DROPPED TO 964 MB
WITH A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 92 KNOTS. DOPPLER WINDS FROM THE
NWS RADAR AT BROWNSVILLE HAVE BEEN OSCILLATING BETWEEN 95 AND 109
KNOTS AROUND 2000 FEET ALTITUDE...AND THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION HAS
IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE YESTERDAY. IT HAS NOW A RAGGED EYE ON
BOTH VIS AND IR IMAGES.   INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO
85 KNOTS...MAKING DOLLY A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE LANDFALL.

RADAR AND AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT DOLLY IS MOVING ON A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TRACK OR 305 DEGREES AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER...DOLLY IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN A LITTLE...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN MORE TO
THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER TODAY. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF
THE HURRICANE INLAND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...A
DEVELOPING MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK.

SHOULD DOLLY MOVE MORE SLOWLY OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS THAN WE
ARE FORECASTING...IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IT TO PRODUCE EVEN MORE
RAINFALL THAN WE ARE CURRENTLY PREDICTING.

Dolly becomes hurricane, targets Texas - CNN.com

Link: Dolly becomes hurricane, targets Texas - CNN.com.

At 8 p.m. ET, the storm, with maximum sustained winds near 75 mph, was centered in the Gulf of Mexico about 130 miles east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas, the hurricane center said.  See Dolly's projected path »

A Category 1 hurricane carries sustained winds between 74 mph and 95 mph. Dolly was expected to strengthen before landfall, but the hurricane center was predicting it wouldn't be stronger than Category 1, Read said.

A hurricane warning was in effect for the Texas coast from Brownsville to Corpus Christi and for northeast Mexico from Rio San Fernando to the U.S. border. iReport.com: Are you ready for hurricane season?

Hurricane watch issued for South Texas coast | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle

Here we go after 2 years of hurricanes not hitting the US coast Dolly is threatening south Texas. So we are bringing posting back to stormdigest.com after a long hiatus.

After rising seemingly out of nowhere over the weekend, Tropical Storm Dolly swept across the tourist beaches of Mexico's eastern Yucatan Penninsula Sunday night and into the Gulf of Mexico this morning.

No severe damage or casualties were reported from the storm. But Dolly dropped as much as five inches of rain on the Cancun area, according to Mexico's National Meteorological Service.

A hurricane watch was issued this morning for parts of the Texas and Mexico coasts as Dolly entered the Gulf of Mexico.

Link: Hurricane watch issued for South Texas coast | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle.

Texas Eyes Erin; Dean Becomes Hurricane

Updated 8/19 12:10pm EST: 

Over the next 12 hours Jamaica will feel the wrath of Dean and by the 11pm update we should know much more about what comes next from DEAN. Indictors show the Yucatan Peninsula is on target and Dean will hold Cat 4 strength.

We will continue to update this post, you may see some of the older images and content of the post removed just for clarity.

Tourists stuck in Jamaica, Dean's path as Haiti spared

MONTEGO BAY, Jamaica (CNN) -- Jamaica's electrical grid was powered down Sunday morning as the first winds from Hurricane Dean began pounding the eastern end of the island.

Only a few hundred residents have moved into shelters and many tourists ignored earlier warnings to fly home.

The massive storm, packing maximum sustained winds of 145 mph, was about 130 miles east-southeast of the Jamaican capital, Kingston, and "the center of Dean will be very near the island of Jamaica by early this afternoon," the advisory said.

Hurricane-force winds extended 60 miles from the center; tropical storm-force winds extend up to 205 miles, the advisory said. It was moving west-northwest at 18 mph and was expected to continue moving in the same direction over the next 24 hours.

 

 

Updated 8/18 10:51am EST: Dean is now a Category 4 heading for Category 5 with Jamaica right it it's path.

A site we traded links with back during Rita and Katrina has the jump on Dean coverage....The SciGuy blog (blog of the Houston Chronicle site) has been on Dean for 3 days now, in his latest post he does issue this early warning to South Texas:

LATE-NIGHT UPDATE: It now appears Dean, an extremely strong Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds, may not turn toward southeast Texas. The official track tonight calls for a final landfall in Mexico, about 75 miles south of the Texas border. Texas coastal residents in Corpus Christi and points south should watch the storm very closely. Houston also shouldn't tune out the storm, at least not yet.

 

DEAN TRACK...
COMPUTER MODELS...

Hurricane Alley has this path:

_________________________________________________________________________________

Original Post: So we are watching Hurricane Dean and Tropical depression Erin.

DEAN TRACK...
COMPUTER MODELS...
Expected To Grow Into Massive Cat. 4 Storm

 

My Way News - Texas Eyes Erin; Dean Becomes Hurricane

Hurricane Watch Issued for the Carolinas

Hurricane Watch Issued for the Carolinas...

60 MPH: ERNESTO RE-GAINS TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...

FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MID-ATLANTIC...

RADAR: DC...
RICHMOND...
WILMINGTON... 

Link: My Way News - Hurricane Watch Issued for the Carolinas.

Ernesto: Gov. Bush Declares State of Emergency as Hurricane Ernesto Approaches Florida - Local News | News Articles | National News | US News

TAVERNIER, Fla. — Visitors were ordered to leave the Florida Keys on Sunday and Gov. Jeb Bush issued a state of emergency because of the possibility that Hurricane Ernesto could threaten the state.

Bush's order came after the Monroe County Emergency Management office told tourists to postpone any immediate plans to travel to the Keys and ordered those already in the island chain to leave.

All travel trailers and recreational vehicles were ordered off the islands immediately.

Link: FOXNews.com - Gov. Bush Declares State of Emergency as Hurricane Ernesto Approaches Florida

China's Worst Storm in Decades Arrives

The most powerful typhoon to hit China in five decades slammed into its southeastern coast Thursday, destroying hundreds of homes and battering the region with rain and wind after more than 1.3 million people were evacuated, state media reported. At least two people were killed.

Typhoon Saomai was the eighth major storm to strike China in this summer's unusually violent typhoon season. Torrential rains were forecast in the next three days as it churned inland across crowded areas where Tropical Storm Bilis killed more than 600 people last month.

Link: BREITBART.COM - China's Worst Storm in Decades Arrives.

China bracing for super typhoon Saomai

Saomai strengthened to a super typhoon Wednesday morning, and is currently sweeping west-northwestward around 20 mph. Landfall is anticipated near midnight tonight, U.S. Eastern time, along the Chinese coast well south of Shanghai between Wenzhou and Fuzhou China

Currently packing estimated maximum sustained winds of 160 mph with gusts to 195 mph (this would be a category 5 storm if it was in the Atlantic Basin), Saomai will be the strongest landfalling typhoon this season along the Chinese coast. Wenzhou, with a population estimated around 2.5 million to Xiapu, China could take a direct hit from Saomai's eyewall. Coastal water surges up to 24 feet are possible as Saomai makes landfall. Major structural damage, flooding and power outages are likely as this monster storm roars ashore. The threat for a major loss of life with this system are possible.

Links:

CAT 5: East Asia braces as Super Typhoon Saomai nears...

Half a million evacuated as typhoon nears China

Tropical Storm Chris: Heavy Rains In The Virgin Islands

While Chris is dumping a bunch of rain on the Virgin Islands and a tropical storm warning is still in effect for Puerto Rico, the Turks and Caicos and southern Bahamas now have a hurricane watch in effect. The storm’s barometric pressure is dropping, which means intensification. Joe Bastardi at Accuweather is predicting this is just a sign of things to come, especially for the Northeast towards mid month. One thing is for certain - if Chris reaches hurricane status before reaching the Gulf of Mexico, the water offshore Pensacola, FL is registering on NOAA weather buoys is currently 90 degrees F. The western Gulf, where Joe-In-The-Know thinks Chris will end up, buoys report cooler temps, but only by about 5F.

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