stormdigest

Tropical Storm Chris: Heavy Rains In The Virgin Islands

While Chris is dumping a bunch of rain on the Virgin Islands and a tropical storm warning is still in effect for Puerto Rico, the Turks and Caicos and southern Bahamas now have a hurricane watch in effect. The storm’s barometric pressure is dropping, which means intensification. Joe Bastardi at Accuweather is predicting this is just a sign of things to come, especially for the Northeast towards mid month. One thing is for certain - if Chris reaches hurricane status before reaching the Gulf of Mexico, the water offshore Pensacola, FL is registering on NOAA weather buoys is currently 90 degrees F. The western Gulf, where Joe-In-The-Know thinks Chris will end up, buoys report cooler temps, but only by about 5F.

Technorati Tags: Hurricanes, Tropical Storms, Chris, Gulf, Joe Bastardi, Accuweather, NOAA, Tropical storm

Katrina Update: Walmart Reopens In Waveland, MS

Here’s our shout out to the first major retailer to re-open in the hardest hit area of the Gulf during hurricane Katrina - WalMart. As you may have seen in our Katrina coverage last year, WalMart (unlike some retailers in Katrina-stricken communities) started relief support immediately after the disaster. In New Orleans, WalMart managers opened the doors and told a refugee crowd "take what you need" thereby displaying more common sense than Ray Nagin, Kathleen Blanco and FEMA combined.

We are proud, and gratified, to hear exclusively from WalMart that the store in Waveland, Mississippi will be formally re-opening this coming Friday - much deserved fanfare and congratulations should ensue. Waveland is a small town of about 10,000 people - the town and surrounding county of Hancock was utterly left without a local infrastructure; the population count also left it at the bottom of the search-and-rescue barrel after the disaster. City Hall, the Fire and Police Departments as well as the almost every other building in town were completely destroyed. The Washington Post featured this town in one of their September 2005 articles; it’s a must read to see just how important WalMart’s opening is to this area which suffered such almost unbelievable damage. The predicament of Waveland’s police force and Hancock’s Emergency Management team (who elected to stay in the area during Katrina) were also mirrored the compelling book, The Great Deluge: Hurricane Katrina, New Orleans and the Mississippi Gulf Coast by Douglas Brinkley.

Hat tip to Chris Abraham for both pictures and the great news! :)

Technorati Tags: Tropical Storms, Hurricane, Katrina, Waveland, Mississippi, WalMart, Kathleen Blanco, Ray Nagin, FEMA

Tropical Storm Chris: Hurricane Before The End of the Week?

All bets are off as a little regarded tropical wave suddenly erupted into now-named tropical storm Chris. I saw this wave the night before last on NOAA and Accuweather, and no one really appeared to be giving it much thought, but wooo boy, they sure are now. Even Joe Bastardi of Accuweather fame is predicting that the possibility exists that Chris could turn hurricane if it makes it past the mountains of Puerto Rico (yes Virginia, Puerto Rico has mountains) and other islands in the Caribbean. After that, Chris may track through the narrow passage of water between Florida and Cuba - something that sure to set one’s Gulf nerves on edge. Chris has strengthened today to 1003 MB, and winds have increased from 50 KT to 60 KT. While there’s a N/NW shear affecting Chris currently, this expected to diminish.

AXNT20 KNHC 020002 AAA
TWDAT

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT TUE AUG 01 2006

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...THE GULF OF MEXICO...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHEASTERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE
AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION
IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...
AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS HAS STRENGTHENED THIS AFTERNOON AS IT NEARS
THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS. THE CENTER OF T.S. CHRIS IS
LOCATED NEAR 18.3 NORTH 61.6 WEST OR ABOUT 45 NM...NORTHEAST OF
ANTIGUA AT 02/0000 UTC. CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 11 KT. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...CHRIS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND EARLY WED. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS
1003 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAS INCREASED TO 50 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 60 KT. CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH
POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMAT3/ WTNT23 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY
MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. A LONG ANIMATION LOOP OF
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGHOUT THE DAY SHOWS THE SYSTEM
WITH TWO BROKEN BANDS OF CONVECTION. SINCE 18Z...THESE BANDS
HAVE CONSOLIDATED LEAVING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 16N TO 18.6N BETWEEN 60W AND 62.5W. SOME
NORTH/NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS STILL IMPACTING CHRIS... IN
ASSOCIATION WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW TO ITS NNE...SHEARING MUCH
OF THE CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CRICLE. HOWEVER...THE
SHEAR DOES APPEAR TO BE DECREASING OVER THE SYSTEM AS OUTFLOW
HAS IMPROVED ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN QUADRANT. CHRIS COULD
MOVE INTO A LOW SHEAR MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

Technorati Tags: Tropical Storms, Chris, Tropical Storm, Florida, Cuba, Gulf, Hurricane

Tropical Storm Chris, Heat and Global Warming in the Clouds

Deadly heatwave moves east across United States...

Cities Conserve Power...

Officials Warn Of Breathing Difficulty in NYC...

HEAT MAP...

TROPICAL STORM CHRIS FORMS...

TRACK MAP...

COMPUTER MODELS...

Rare clouds 'could indicate global warming'...

Beryl: Closer to Cape Cod Than Expected

Southeastern Massachusetts looks to be the area to be most affected by tropical storm Beryl:

...BERYL CONTINUES NORTHEASTWARD...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE
COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA’S VINEYARD.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF WOODS HOLE
MASSACHUSETTS WESTWARD TO NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT...AND FOR EASTERN
LONG ISLAND EAST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.

Estimated central pressure for the storm is 1003 MB, and maximum sustained winds have dropped to 45 KT - gusts can be expected at about 55 KT. As Beryl moves over cooler waters, the deep convection it had further south is diminishing - good news for those in Massachusetts. However, flood watches have been posted for the region as well as the tropical storm warning.

Technorati Tags: Flooding, Tropical Storms, Beryl, Massachusetts, Cape Cod, Plymouth, Nantucket

Beryl: Forecasted Path Update, Tropical Watches Issued

11PM NOAA Update

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS FROM PLYMOUTH TO WOODS HOLE...INCLUDING CAPE
COD...NANTUCKET ISLAND AND MARTHA’S VINEYARD.

Technorati Tags: Tropical Storms, Beryl, Massachusetts

Tropical Storm Beryl: Increase In Intensity?

The 5pm NOAA Tropical Weather discussion points out that Beryl has increased wind velocity to 50 KT. What must be stated though is that some forecast models have Beryl weakening and moving to the east and hitting the Northeast coast somewhere from New Jersey or the New England coast. A tropical storm watch is being issued for the coast of Massachusetts as a result, and the potential exists that high winds and flooding could be of concern in the Northeast this weekend. It’s also thought another increase in intensity could occur since the storm will be over favorable waters at least south of Delaware but again, this is like predicting the nor’easters in the winter - it *could* happen.

TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT
ANZ231>233-254-255-MAZ019-022>024-200130-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM BERYL LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
608 PM EDT WED JUL 19 2006

...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE
MASSACHUSETTS TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...NANTUCKET
...AND SOUTHEAST PLYMOUTH COUNTY TO BE IMPACTED BY TROPICAL STORM
BERYL LATE THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
EXTENDS FROM PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS.

THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY PERSONS IN...
SOUTHEAST COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS. THIS STATEMENT ALSO RECOMMENDS
ACTIONS FOR BOATERS IN THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS TO
PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS.

TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS PROJECTED TO PASS APPROXIMATELY 40 MILES
SOUTH OF NANTUCKET AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. ON THIS TRACK...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 39 MPH COULD SPREAD ACROSS
THE WATCH AREA. THE MOST LIKELY AREA TO RECEIVE TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WOULD BE OVER NANTUCKET...CLOSEST TO BERYL.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 36.3 NORTH LONGITUDE 73.5 WEST...OR ABOUT 390 MILES
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET. MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTH AT 8 MPH.
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAD INCREASED TO 60 MPH. LOWEST
BAROMETRIC PRESSURE WAS 1002 MB...OR 29.59 INCHES.

THE NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST EXPECTED ON THURSDAY.

..PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
ONE OF THE BIGGEST THREATS A TROPICAL STORM CAN POSE TO NEW ENGLAND
IS TO THE BOATING COMMUNITY. MARINERS ARE ADVISED TO REMAIN IN PORT
UNTIL THE TROPICAL STORM THREAT HAS PASSED. BOAT OWNERS AND MARINA
OPERATORS SHOULD BEGIN PREPARING FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS. THE
PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS INCLUDE PREPARING GEAR TO BE ABLE TO TIE DOWN
VESSELS.

FOR A MORE COMPLETE LISTING OF TROPICAL STORM WATCH PREPAREDNESS
INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON.

...WIND IMPACTS...
AT THE POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH...WHICH WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 6 AM
FRIDAY MORNING...BERYL IS EXPECTED TO BE PACKING SUSTAINED WINDS OF
60 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH...MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER. TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OF APPROXIMATELY 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH WOULD
BEGIN ON NANTUCKET AT APPROXIMATELY 3 AM FRIDAY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 3.9 FEET OCCURS AT NANTUCKET AT 918 PM
THURSDAY NIGHT AND 2.7 FEET AT 1013 AM FRIDAY MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 FEET WHICH
WOULD CAUSE SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER TO OCCUR.

AN ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE OF 10.0 FEET OCCURS AT PROVINCETOWN AT
826 PM THURSDAY NIGHT AND 8.4 FEET AT 912 AM FRIDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO 1 TO 2 FEET
WHICH WOULD CAUSE SOME MINOR SPLASHOVER TO OCCUR.

THE SURGES THAT ACTUALLY OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON THE EVENTUAL SPEED OF
THE STORM. THE ARRIVAL TIME OF THE STORM...WHETHER IT ARRIVES AT
HIGH TIDE OR AT LOW TIDE...WILL ALSO AFFECT THESE VALUES.

...RIVER AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM BERYL MAY PRODUCE RAINFALL OF 3 TO 6 INCHES OVER
CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.
IN PLYMOUTH AND BRISTOL COUNTIES OF MASSACHUSETTS AS WELL AS RHODE
ISLAND...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN. AS A
RESULT...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FLOODING.

ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...MINOR FLOODING WOULD BE INITIATED IF
3 INCHES OF RAIN WERE TO OCCUR IN ONE HOUR OR 4.5 INCHES IN 3 HOURS.
ELSEWHERE IN SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS AND IN RHODE ISLAND...2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN ONE HOUR OR 3 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IN 3 HOURS
WOULD INITIATE FLOODING.

AT THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IS OVER CAPE
COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND NANTUCKET.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON BY 9 PM.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON PREPAREDNESS MEASURES FOR BOTH COASTAL AND
INLAND RESIDENTS WILL BE CONTAINED IN PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENTS
/KBOXPNSBOX/ THAT WILL BE ISSUED THROUGHOUT THE STORM THREAT.
ADDITIONAL STORM INFORMATION CAN ALSO BE FOUND IN SHORT TERM
FORECASTS /KBOXNOWBOX/...AND IN THE TROPICAL PREDICTION CENTER
PRODUCTS.

Technorati Tags: Site News, Tropical Storms, Beryl, Massachusetts, Flooding

Tropical Storm Beryl Forms

According to NOAA’s NHC Tropical Forecast Discussion, recon and satellite imagery seem to indicate that newly named tropical storm Beryl is getting her act together. With a barometric pressure of 1007 MB, she’s now packing to wind gusts of 46 KT (about 52 MPH). This is actually slightly surprising, since some of the forecast models didn’t really predict the formation of the low which spawned the storm very well. The feeling one gets from reading the forecast discussion from 4PM today is that predicting this storm’s path is rather like the East coast winter nor’easters - everybody waits in anticipation to see how much snow they’ll get *if* they get any at all. At the moment, the storm looks to hug the NC/VA coast then shoot northeastward, taking it out of harm’s way to the rest of the coast. Tropical storm watches are posted by NOAA for the Outer Banks.

The fact that this tropical storm formed in the Atlantic might bode badly for the remainder of the hurricane season, and perhaps may make some forecasters’ predictions about a hurricane hitting the Eastern seaboard more of a reality.

11PM Update:

WTNT32 KNHC 190233
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BERYL ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022006
1100 PM EDT TUE JUL 18 2006

...BERYL DRIFTING NORTHWARD WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH....

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF
NORTH CAROLINA FROM NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTHWARD TO SOUTH OF
CURRITUCK BEACH LIGHT.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 34.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.6 WEST OR ABOUT 130
MILES...215 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA.

BERYL IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS.

Technorati Tags: Site News, Tropical Storms, Beryl, Outer Banks, North Carolina, NOAA

No tornadoes and maybe a tropical storm

A tropical storm may form over Florida in the next several days.

NEW YORK (Reuters) - A tropical storm could form around Florida over the next day or two, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said Wednesday in an Atlantic tropical weather outlook at 5:30 a.m. EDT. The NHC said showers and thunderstorms were currently located over the Bahamas, central and eastern Cuba and southeastern Florida. Over the next couple of days, the system could drift slowly westward over the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of Mexico where several of the key U.S. oil and natural gas fields and refineries are located.

Tropical storm could form around Florida: NHC

In other weather news. No tornadoes confirmed in the first 6 months of 2006 in the northern part of tornado alley.

LINCOLN, Neb. -- Meteorologists at the National Weather Service office in Hastings are feeling lucky this year. The 30-county area they serve in central Nebraska and north-central Kansas hasn’t had a confirmed tornado for the first six months of this year. That hasn’t happened since 1950. local6.com - Weather - No Tornadoes Confirmed In Nebraska-Kansas Area This Year

(via local6.com - Home)

Alberto Losing Steam, Could Potentially Restrengthen

We think the phrase for today with regard to Alberto's landfall is a comment made by a Florida resident to the media to describe his impression of the storm's affects:  "mosquito wind." (For all you Yankees, that's a wind that just keeps the mosquitos at bay.)  Nevertheless, flooding as the storm along South and North Carolina's coasts will be a concern, as well as the *possible* re-strengthening of the storm as it hits the Outer Banks.

.... HOWEVER...IT LACKS ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. RAINBANDS WITH SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA N OF 28N E OF 87W TO OVER THE SE US. ALBERTO IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS BECOMING A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG THE E US COAST.

Even NOAA isn't mentioning that in their latest discussion, but at least one of the models holds that it is a faint, but interesting, potential that exists.  Some storms in the past which have taken the same path have fallen apart just like Alberto to churn back up when positioned off the North Carolina coast. Buyer beware.

More concerning is the number of tropical waves, one of which at 64W/65W S bears watching. Place your bets...

Tags: Alberto, Florida, Tropical Storm, North Carolina, South Carolina, Flooding